The population of the least developed countries of the Sahel will more than triple from 100 million to 340 million by 2050, and new research projects that today’s extreme temperatures will become the norm by mid-century. The region is characterized by poverty, illiteracy, weak infrastructure, failed states, widespread conflict, and an abysmal status of women. Scenarios beyond 2050 demonstrate that, without urgent and significant action today, the Sahel could become the first part of planet earth that suffers large-scale starvation and escalating conflict as a growing human population outruns diminishing natural resources. National governments and the international community can do a great deal to ameliorate this unfolding disaster if they put in place immediate policies and investments to help communities adapt to climate change, make family planning realistically available, and improve the status of girls and women. Implementing evidence-based action now will be an order of magnitude more humane and cost-effective than confronting disaster later. However, action will challenge some long held development paradigms of economists, demographers, and humanitarian organizations. If the crisis unfolding in the Sahel can help bridge the current intellectual chasm between the economic commitment to seemingly endless growth and the threat seen by some biologists and ecologists that human activity is bringing about irreversible damage to the biosphere, then it may be possible also to begin to solve this same formidable problem at a global level.

Published in Environmental & Resource Economics 2013: 55(4), 501-512.

A report following the OASIS Conference (Organizing to Advance Solutions in the Sahel) hosted by the University of California, Berkeley and African Institute for Development Policy in Berkeley on September 21, 2012.The goal of this report is to start building a network of scientists and policy makers committed to helping the Sahel address its population, environment, and food security challenges. A compelling body of evidence is needed to inform people in governments and relevant local institutions, humanitarian organizations, foreign aid agencies, philanthropic institutions, and national security agencies concerning the startling challenges facing this neglected and highly vulnerable region.

Last spring at a Technology, Entertainment, Design (TED) talk in Berlin, Melinda Gates used this phrase, “The most transformative thing you can do is to give people access to birth control.” She expressed similar sentiments at the London Summit on Family Planning on July 11, 2012, as did the British Prime Minister David Cameron, and Andrew Mitchell who was then Secretary of State for the Department for International Development, the British equivalent of United States Agency for International Development. The London Summit represented a new focus on international family planning after nearly 20 years of collapsed budgets. It set the goal of halving the number of women with an unmet need for family planning in the world’s poor counties in the next 8 years — that is, helping 120 million out of an estimated 222 million women worldwide with an unmet need for family planning. Donor governments and foundations pledged US$2625 million dollars over the next 8 years to reach this goal. Governments of the target countries, especially India, committed another US$2 billion. This renaissance in international family planning is exceedingly welcome, but if it is to succeed, it must pay particular attention to the least developed countries (LDCs).

Published in: Contraception (Article In Press)

Although fertility decline often correlates with improvements in socioeconomic conditions, many demographers have found flaws in demographic transition theories that depend on changes in distal factors such as increased wealth or education. Human beings worldwide engage in sexual intercourse much more frequently than is needed to conceive the number of children they want, and for women who do not have access to the information and means they need to separate sex from childbearing, the default position is a large family. In many societies, male patriarchal drives to control female reproduction give rise to unnecessary medical rules constraining family planning (including safe abortion) or justifying child marriage. Widespread misinformation about contraception makes women afraid to adopt modern family planning. The barriers to family planning can be so deeply infused that for many women the idea of managing their fertility is not considered an option. Conversely, there is evidence that once family planning is introduced into a society, then it is normal consumer behaviour for individuals to welcome a new technology they had not wanted until it became realistically available. We contend that in societies free from child marriage, wherever women have access to a range of contraceptive methods, along with correct information and backed up by safe abortion, family size will always fall. Education and wealth can make the adoption of family planning easier, but they are not prerequisites for fertility decline. By contrast, access to family planning itself can accelerate economic development and the spread of education.

Chu, Brhlikova and Pollock’s article suggests the WHO rethink its decision to include misoprostol on the Essential Medi- cines List. Their paper is a sad example of workers in an elite setting advocating policies with the potential to endanger the lives of thousands of vulnerable women in low-resource settings.

A 50-fold disparity in maternal mortality exists between high- and low-income countries, and in most contexts, the single most common cause of maternal death is postpartum hemorrhage (PPH). In Bangladesh, as in many other low-income countries, the majority of deliveries are conducted at home by traditional birth attendants (TBAs) or family members. In the absence of skilled birth attendants, training TBAs in the use of misoprostol and an absorbent delivery mat to measure postpartum blood loss may strengthen the ability of TBAs to manage PPH. These complementary interventions were tested in operations research among 77,337 home births in rural Bangladesh. The purpose of this study was to evaluate TBAs' knowledge acquisition, knowledge retention, and changes in attitudes and practices related to PPH management in home births after undergoing training on the use of misoprostol and the blood collection delivery mat. We conclude that the training was highly effective and that the two interventions were safely and correctly used by TBAs at home births. Data on TBA practices indicate adherence to protocol, and 18 months after the interventions were implemented, TBA knowledge retention remained high. This program strengthens the case for community-based use of misoprostol and warrants consideration of this intervention as a potential model for scale-up in settings where complete coverage of skilled birth attendants (SBAs) remains a distant goal.

The largest absolute numbers of maternal deaths occur among the 40–50 million women who deliver annually without a skilled birth attendant. Most of these deaths occur in countries with a total fertility rate of greater than 4. The combination of global warming and rapid population growth in the Sahel and parts of the Middle East poses a serious threat to reproductive health and to food security. Poverty, lack of resources, and rapid population growth make it unlikely that most women in these countries will have access to skilled birth attendants or emergency obstetric care in the foreseeable future. Three strategies can be implemented to improve women’s health and reproductive rights in high-fertility, low-resource settings: (1) make family planning accessible and remove non-evidenced-based barriers to contraception; (2) scale up community distribution of misoprostol for prevention of postpartum hemorrhage and, where it is legal, for medical abortion; and (3) eliminate child marriage and invest in girls and young women, thereby reducing early childbearing.

Last year a member of the World Bank professional staff gave a lecture on development in Africa on the UC Berkeley campus. His audience asked him about rapid population growth in that continent. He immediately dismissed the question, saying that population growth did not need any special attention. It would look after itself. He was voicing an uncritical interpretation of the demographic transition, a “theory” which has as much evidence to support it as the fictitious Da Vinci Code, and like the Da Vinci Code it remains perennially popular.

The fifth Millennium Development Goal has brought critical attention to the unacceptably high burden of maternal mortality and the need to improve antenatal health care. However, many of the approaches to reducing maternal mortality (e.g., increasing the number of deliveries at health facilities with skilled attendants or improving access to emergency obstetric care) are complex and will take time to implement. In the meantime, maternal mortality can be reduced relatively inexpensively by preventing unwanted pregnancy through family planning. The decision to practice family planning is personal and private, and it need not require professionals or health clinics. Although inexpensive at the program level, however, family planning may be difficult for individuals to afford. Thus, women face barriers, including cost, lack of transportation and the fear of side effects (real or rumored). In developing countries, making contraceptives available and accessible may be the most important, cost-effective and easily accomplished primary health care goal. Reducing barriers to family planning may lessen the burden of maternal death in low-resource settings.

Between February 2002 and January 2004 in the Adigrat Zonal Hospital, covering one-fifth of the large Tigray region of North West Ethiopia, there were 907 admissions with a diagnosis of abortion. Among these, 521 were induced by traditional, unsafe methods. Unsafe abortion was the leading cause of admission, accounting for 12.6% of all bed occupancy throughout this general hospital and 60.6% of the gynecological admissions. About 57% of patients admitted with unsafe abortions had serious complications, including tubo-ovarian abscess, vaginal laceration, uterine perforation, generalised peritonitis and renal failure. Three women died from complications of unsafe abortion. Five years later in the same hospital, between July 2009 and September 2010 unsafe abortion cases had declined, becoming the tenth cause of hospital admission. There were no deaths and no severe complications.

Niger—with the world’s fastest growing population, its highest total fertility rate (TFR), a small and diminishing amount of arable land, low annual rainfall, a high level of malnutrition, extremely low levels of education, gross gen- der inequities and an uncertain future in the face of climate change—is the most extreme example of a catastrophe that is likely to overtake the Sahel. The policies chosen by Niger’s government and the international community to reduce rapid population growth and the speed with which they are implemented are of the utmost importance. In this comment, we review the problems posed by Niger’s rapid population growth and the policy options proposed to confront it.