The population of the least developed countries of the Sahel will more than triple from 100 million to 340 million by 2050, and new research projects that today’s extreme temperatures will become the norm by mid-century. The region is characterized by poverty, illiteracy, weak infrastructure, failed states, widespread conflict, and an abysmal status of women. Scenarios beyond 2050 demonstrate that, without urgent and significant action today, the Sahel could become the first part of planet earth that suffers large-scale starvation and escalating conflict as a growing human population outruns diminishing natural resources. National governments and the international community can do a great deal to ameliorate this unfolding disaster if they put in place immediate policies and investments to help communities adapt to climate change, make family planning realistically available, and improve the status of girls and women. Implementing evidence-based action now will be an order of magnitude more humane and cost-effective than confronting disaster later. However, action will challenge some long held development paradigms of economists, demographers, and humanitarian organizations. If the crisis unfolding in the Sahel can help bridge the current intellectual chasm between the economic commitment to seemingly endless growth and the threat seen by some biologists and ecologists that human activity is bringing about irreversible damage to the biosphere, then it may be possible also to begin to solve this same formidable problem at a global level.

Published in Environmental & Resource Economics 2013: 55(4), 501-512.

A report following the OASIS Conference (Organizing to Advance Solutions in the Sahel) hosted by the University of California, Berkeley and African Institute for Development Policy in Berkeley on September 21, 2012.The goal of this report is to start building a network of scientists and policy makers committed to helping the Sahel address its population, environment, and food security challenges. A compelling body of evidence is needed to inform people in governments and relevant local institutions, humanitarian organizations, foreign aid agencies, philanthropic institutions, and national security agencies concerning the startling challenges facing this neglected and highly vulnerable region.

Last spring at a Technology, Entertainment, Design (TED) talk in Berlin, Melinda Gates used this phrase, “The most transformative thing you can do is to give people access to birth control.” She expressed similar sentiments at the London Summit on Family Planning on July 11, 2012, as did the British Prime Minister David Cameron, and Andrew Mitchell who was then Secretary of State for the Department for International Development, the British equivalent of United States Agency for International Development. The London Summit represented a new focus on international family planning after nearly 20 years of collapsed budgets. It set the goal of halving the number of women with an unmet need for family planning in the world’s poor counties in the next 8 years — that is, helping 120 million out of an estimated 222 million women worldwide with an unmet need for family planning. Donor governments and foundations pledged US$2625 million dollars over the next 8 years to reach this goal. Governments of the target countries, especially India, committed another US$2 billion. This renaissance in international family planning is exceedingly welcome, but if it is to succeed, it must pay particular attention to the least developed countries (LDCs).

Published in: Contraception (Article In Press)

Although fertility decline often correlates with improvements in socioeconomic conditions, many demographers have found flaws in demographic transition theories that depend on changes in distal factors such as increased wealth or education. Human beings worldwide engage in sexual intercourse much more frequently than is needed to conceive the number of children they want, and for women who do not have access to the information and means they need to separate sex from childbearing, the default position is a large family. In many societies, male patriarchal drives to control female reproduction give rise to unnecessary medical rules constraining family planning (including safe abortion) or justifying child marriage. Widespread misinformation about contraception makes women afraid to adopt modern family planning. The barriers to family planning can be so deeply infused that for many women the idea of managing their fertility is not considered an option. Conversely, there is evidence that once family planning is introduced into a society, then it is normal consumer behaviour for individuals to welcome a new technology they had not wanted until it became realistically available. We contend that in societies free from child marriage, wherever women have access to a range of contraceptive methods, along with correct information and backed up by safe abortion, family size will always fall. Education and wealth can make the adoption of family planning easier, but they are not prerequisites for fertility decline. By contrast, access to family planning itself can accelerate economic development and the spread of education.

Chu, Brhlikova and Pollock’s article suggests the WHO rethink its decision to include misoprostol on the Essential Medi- cines List. Their paper is a sad example of workers in an elite setting advocating policies with the potential to endanger the lives of thousands of vulnerable women in low-resource settings.

A 50-fold disparity in maternal mortality exists between high- and low-income countries, and in most contexts, the single most common cause of maternal death is postpartum hemorrhage (PPH). In Bangladesh, as in many other low-income countries, the majority of deliveries are conducted at home by traditional birth attendants (TBAs) or family members. In the absence of skilled birth attendants, training TBAs in the use of misoprostol and an absorbent delivery mat to measure postpartum blood loss may strengthen the ability of TBAs to manage PPH. These complementary interventions were tested in operations research among 77,337 home births in rural Bangladesh. The purpose of this study was to evaluate TBAs' knowledge acquisition, knowledge retention, and changes in attitudes and practices related to PPH management in home births after undergoing training on the use of misoprostol and the blood collection delivery mat. We conclude that the training was highly effective and that the two interventions were safely and correctly used by TBAs at home births. Data on TBA practices indicate adherence to protocol, and 18 months after the interventions were implemented, TBA knowledge retention remained high. This program strengthens the case for community-based use of misoprostol and warrants consideration of this intervention as a potential model for scale-up in settings where complete coverage of skilled birth attendants (SBAs) remains a distant goal.

The largest absolute numbers of maternal deaths occur among the 40–50 million women who deliver annually without a skilled birth attendant. Most of these deaths occur in countries with a total fertility rate of greater than 4. The combination of global warming and rapid population growth in the Sahel and parts of the Middle East poses a serious threat to reproductive health and to food security. Poverty, lack of resources, and rapid population growth make it unlikely that most women in these countries will have access to skilled birth attendants or emergency obstetric care in the foreseeable future. Three strategies can be implemented to improve women’s health and reproductive rights in high-fertility, low-resource settings: (1) make family planning accessible and remove non-evidenced-based barriers to contraception; (2) scale up community distribution of misoprostol for prevention of postpartum hemorrhage and, where it is legal, for medical abortion; and (3) eliminate child marriage and invest in girls and young women, thereby reducing early childbearing.

Last year a member of the World Bank professional staff gave a lecture on development in Africa on the UC Berkeley campus. His audience asked him about rapid population growth in that continent. He immediately dismissed the question, saying that population growth did not need any special attention. It would look after itself. He was voicing an uncritical interpretation of the demographic transition, a “theory” which has as much evidence to support it as the fictitious Da Vinci Code, and like the Da Vinci Code it remains perennially popular.

In 1957, along with many countries in Eastern Europe, Romania liberalised its abortion law. The Soviet model of birth control made surgical abortion easily available, but put restrictions on access to modern contraceptives, leading to an exceptionally high abortion rate. By the mid-1960s there were 1 100 000 abortions performed each year in Romania, a lifetime average of 3.9 per woman, the highest number ever recorded. In October 1966, 1 year after coming to power, in an attempt to boost fertility, Romania’s communist leader Nicolae Ceausescu made abortion broadly illegal, permitting the procedure legally only under a narrow range of circumstances: for women with four or more children, over the age of 45 years, in circumstances where the pregnancy was the result of rape or incest or threatened the life of the women, or in the case of congenital defect.

Published in Journal of Family Planning and Reproductive Health Care 2013: 39(1), 2-4.

A review of “Sex Before the Sexual Revolution: Intimate Life in England 1918–1963” by Simon Szreter and Kate Fisher.

Brief Excerpt:

As a young obstetrician in London in the 1960s, who had just moved into a house built in the 1920s, I began talking to my two neighbors, literally over the garden fence. They were both widows in their 80s and we soon wandered into conversations about the role of contraception in their married lives half a century earlier. Looking out on the sexual revolution of the 1960s, they were almost eager to talk about intimate details of their younger lives.

The fifth Millennium Development Goal has brought critical attention to the unacceptably high burden of maternal mortality and the need to improve antenatal health care. However, many of the approaches to reducing maternal mortality (e.g., increasing the number of deliveries at health facilities with skilled attendants or improving access to emergency obstetric care) are complex and will take time to implement. In the meantime, maternal mortality can be reduced relatively inexpensively by preventing unwanted pregnancy through family planning. The decision to practice family planning is personal and private, and it need not require professionals or health clinics. Although inexpensive at the program level, however, family planning may be difficult for individuals to afford. Thus, women face barriers, including cost, lack of transportation and the fear of side effects (real or rumored). In developing countries, making contraceptives available and accessible may be the most important, cost-effective and easily accomplished primary health care goal. Reducing barriers to family planning may lessen the burden of maternal death in low-resource settings.

Between February 2002 and January 2004 in the Adigrat Zonal Hospital, covering one-fifth of the large Tigray region of North West Ethiopia, there were 907 admissions with a diagnosis of abortion. Among these, 521 were induced by traditional, unsafe methods. Unsafe abortion was the leading cause of admission, accounting for 12.6% of all bed occupancy throughout this general hospital and 60.6% of the gynecological admissions. About 57% of patients admitted with unsafe abortions had serious complications, including tubo-ovarian abscess, vaginal laceration, uterine perforation, generalised peritonitis and renal failure. Three women died from complications of unsafe abortion. Five years later in the same hospital, between July 2009 and September 2010 unsafe abortion cases had declined, becoming the tenth cause of hospital admission. There were no deaths and no severe complications.

Niger—with the world’s fastest growing population, its highest total fertility rate (TFR), a small and diminishing amount of arable land, low annual rainfall, a high level of malnutrition, extremely low levels of education, gross gen- der inequities and an uncertain future in the face of climate change—is the most extreme example of a catastrophe that is likely to overtake the Sahel. The policies chosen by Niger’s government and the international community to reduce rapid population growth and the speed with which they are implemented are of the utmost importance. In this comment, we review the problems posed by Niger’s rapid population growth and the policy options proposed to confront it.

One approach to delivering healthcare in developing countries is through voucher programmes, where vouchers are distributed to a targeted population for free or subsidised health care. Using inclusion/exclusion criteria, a search of databases, key journals and websites review was conducted in October 2010. A narrative synthesis approach was taken to summarise and analyse five outcome categories: targeting, utilisation, cost efficiency, quality and health outcomes. Sub-group and sensitivity analyses were also performed. A total of 24 studies evaluating 16 health voucher programmes were identified. The findings from 64 outcome variables indicates: modest evidence that vouchers effectively target specific populations; insufficient evidence to determine whether vouchers deliver healthcare efficiently; robust evidence that vouchers increase utilisation; modest evidence that vouchers improve quality; no evidence that vouchers have an impact on health outcomes; however, this last conclusion was found to be unstable in a sensitivity analysis. The results in the areas of targeting, utilisation and quality indicate that vouchers have a positive effect on health service delivery. The subsequent link that they improve health was found to be unstable from the data analysed; another finding of a positive effect would result in robust evidence. Vouchers are still new and the number of published studies is limiting.

Recent efforts to reduce maternal mortality in developing countries have focused primarily on two long-term aims: training and deploying skilled birth attendants and upgrading emergency obstetric care facilities. Given the future population-level benefits, strengthening of health systems makes excellent strategic sense but it does not address the immediate safe-delivery needs of the estimated 45 million women who are likely to deliver at home, without a skilled birth attendant. There are currently 28 countries from four major regions in which fewer than half of all births are attended by skilled birth attendants. Sixty-nine percent of maternal deaths in these four regions can be attributed to these 28 countries, despite the fact that these countries only constitute 34% of the total population in these regions. Trends documenting the change in the proportion of births accompanied by a skilled attendant in these 28 countries over the last 15-20 years offer no indication that adequate change is imminent. To rapidly reduce maternal mortality in regions where births in the home without skilled birth attendants are common, governments and community-based organizations could implement a cost-effective, complementary strategy involving health workers who are likely to be present when births in the home take place. Training community-based birth attendants in primary and secondary prevention technologies (e.g. misoprostol, family planning, measurement of blood loss, and postpartum care) will increase the chance that women in the lowest economic quintiles will also benefit from global safe motherhood efforts.

Praying for Divine Intervention: The Reality of “The Three Delays” in Northern Nigeria

BM Tukur, U Bawa, K Odogwu, S Adaji, P Passano, I Suleiman

Abstract

This paper describes how pregnant women in three northern Nigerian communities responded to maternal complications that occurred outside of a hospital setting. The sample consisted of 322 women who had recently delivered, of which 15% had at least one complication. Thirty-seven percent of women described antepartum or postpartum haemorrhage. Over 60% of women went to a health care facility, but 35% first tried herbal remedies and another 20% simply waited for their husband to return. The median interval between recognizing the problem and deciding to seek help was two hours. It took approximately one to two hours to reach the hospital and upon arrival, most respondents got care in one to two hours. Rural communities clearly have their own hierarchy of appropriate actions in the face of a household emergency which need to be understood in order to develop creative intervention strategies to reduce unnecessary risks to the life of a mother (Afr. J. Reprod. Health 2010; 14[3]: 113-119).

Key words: Maternal mortality, obstetric emergency, three delays, obstetric complications, actions taken.

This study assessed antenatal care (ANC) coverage, place of delivery and use of skilled birth assistants in three communities in Kaduna State, Nigeria. The sample included 332 women who had delivered within two years of the survey. ANC attendance rates were high, with 76.2% of women reporting at least one visit, and 63.3% receiving four or more. However, median gestational age at the first visit was four months and only 9.3% received all the recommended components. Health facility deliveries (11.7%) were far lower than ANC attendance. Educational status was found to be statistically significantly associated with all ANC and safe delivery outcomes. To make significant progress towards the fifth MDG in northern Nigeria, effective strategies to encourage women’s education paired with improvements in ANC quality (especially within communities) is essential. Most importantly, safer delivery options that would be acceptable in communities where women traditionally birth at home need to be explored (Afr. J. Reprod. Health 2010; 14[3]: 89-96).

Although maternal mortality is a significant global health issue, achievements in mortality decline to date have been inadequate. A review of the interventions targeted at maternal mortality reduction demonstrates that most developing countries face tremendous challenges in the implementation of these interventions, including the availability of unreliable data and the shortage in human and financial resources, as well as limited political commitment. Examples from developing countries, such as Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Honduras, demonstrate that maternal mortality will decline when appropriate strategies are in place. Such achievable strategies need to include redoubled commitments on the part of local, national and global political bodies, concrete investments in high-yield and cost-effective interventions and the delegation of some clinical tasks from higher-level healthcare providers to mid- or lower-level healthcare providers, as well as improved health-management information systems.

Objective: Guide policy-makers in prioritizing safe motherhood interventions.

Methods: Three models (LOW, MED, HIGH) were constructed based on 34 sub-Saharan African countries to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of available safe motherhood interventions. Cost and effectiveness data were compiled and inserted into the WHO Mother Baby Package Costing Spreadsheet. For each model we assessed the percentage in maternal mortality reduction after implementing all interventions, and optimal combinations of interventions given restricted budgets of US$ 0.50, US$ 1.00, US$ 1.50 per capital maternal health expenditures respectively for LOW, MED, and HIGH models.

Results: The most cost-effective interventions were family planning and safe abortion (fpsa), antenatal care including misoprostol distribution for postpartum hemorrhage prevention at home deliveries (anc-miso), followed by sepsis treatment (sepsis) and facility-based postpartum hemorrhage management (pph).

In the 1970s, policy-makers in both India and China, convinced that reducing population growth was critical for ending poverty, instituted coercive population policies. Yet fertility had already been declining in both countries before the population policies were instituted. In China, the total fertility rate (TFR) had already fallen to 2.9 before the institution of the One-Child Policy. In India, fertility continued to decline at roughly the same rate before, during and after ‘The Emergency’. Regardless of government mandates, couples in both countries before the policies and since have shown a desire to reduce their family size and when given access to family planning, have voluntarily limited the number of children they chose to have.